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The Coal Trader's avatar

I'm not sure the assumption of stagnant electric demand is a good one. Despite the RE bust, demand continues to grow at over 3% (through Aug) this year. Moreover, don't we have to assume the Chinese population's standard of living continues to approach Western levels? This would imply continued increases in urbanization, as well as associated increases in per capita energy usage, including electricity. We're talking more air conditioning, washing machines, dryers, misc. appliances, etc. etc.

The real conundrum with your premise is the planned growth in coal power generation in China. There is 243 GW under construction/permitted, potentially reaching 392 GW when including planned but unpermitted projects. This suggests a potential 23% to 33% increase in coal capacity from 2022 levels.

Total power gen demand CAGR's of 3% at China's scale requires an all in on every generation source type of approach. The massive solar buildout, in tandem with the increased coal gen construction, aligns more with the continued growth outlook from policy makers.

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Simon Powell's avatar

The big unknown is how the grid actuary works - of course this is not 1 grid is mode like 9 - I have looked at this in the past and know some people who have modeled it - I'll connect you

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