The paper I’ve been working on with Dr Jorrit Gosens and Professor Frank Jotzo is out! The material is familiar territory for subscribers of this Substack: China will import less coal by sea as they: Slow down emissions according to targets which requires
Seems like an analysis of Indian demand is at play in regards to Australian coal since that's the primary buyer of Aussie thermal.
China's energy intensity [level of primary energy (MJ/$2011 PPP GDP)] fell from 21.2 in 1990 to 6.7 in 2015 (World Bank).
GDP will grow $1.6 Tn PPP this year, more than almost any year since 1951, to almost $30 Tn.
Does this imply coal from Australia will soon be substituted?