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Patrick's avatar

Thanks Alex, scary possibilities. Another book to add to my pile.

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Tksr's avatar

"Total births in 1987 were 28mm, they were ~10mm last year. China could triple college graduation rates and still have only the same number of graduates in 22 years from now"

This point massively understates how much more educated, economically viable and useful a graduate 22 years from now would be vis-a-vis a graduate today. Massively. A labour force of 750mn with 150mn graduates and 600mn 'peasants', is far less productive than a labour force of 600mn with 300mn graduates and 300mn 'peasants'.

I actually agree with Rozelle/Hell. I think hukou reform is the most significant bellwether for future Chinese growth and prosperity and its something that I think the CCP are moving towards, considering the recent Shandong and Jiangxi developments. I would love to read an update from them in a half-decade time to ascertain the progress made.

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