I said that I would plan to get to more book reviews with this newsletter but due to research and work commitments that has been tricky. Nonetheless I had the time to read Rozelle and Hell’s excellent “Invisible China” which is a culmination of a career of painstaking primary research in China’s labor markets and society. There is a good podcast with Rozelle
"Total births in 1987 were 28mm, they were ~10mm last year. China could triple college graduation rates and still have only the same number of graduates in 22 years from now"
This point massively understates how much more educated, economically viable and useful a graduate 22 years from now would be vis-a-vis a graduate today. Massively. A labour force of 750mn with 150mn graduates and 600mn 'peasants', is far less productive than a labour force of 600mn with 300mn graduates and 300mn 'peasants'.
I actually agree with Rozelle/Hell. I think hukou reform is the most significant bellwether for future Chinese growth and prosperity and its something that I think the CCP are moving towards, considering the recent Shandong and Jiangxi developments. I would love to read an update from them in a half-decade time to ascertain the progress made.
"This book outlines the profound bind that the CCP is in around their social contract with the Chinese people: we deliver growth in exchange for power, elite rents and quiescence on political freedoms"?
If that is their social contract, what is ours?
We have more more hungry children, drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, and imprisoned people in America than China.
And as to education, the OECD found that even children in poor Chinese provincial schools beat our kids in the PISA tests, while the average Chinese child has longer healthy life expectancy than the average American.
Thanks Alex, scary possibilities. Another book to add to my pile.
"Total births in 1987 were 28mm, they were ~10mm last year. China could triple college graduation rates and still have only the same number of graduates in 22 years from now"
This point massively understates how much more educated, economically viable and useful a graduate 22 years from now would be vis-a-vis a graduate today. Massively. A labour force of 750mn with 150mn graduates and 600mn 'peasants', is far less productive than a labour force of 600mn with 300mn graduates and 300mn 'peasants'.
I actually agree with Rozelle/Hell. I think hukou reform is the most significant bellwether for future Chinese growth and prosperity and its something that I think the CCP are moving towards, considering the recent Shandong and Jiangxi developments. I would love to read an update from them in a half-decade time to ascertain the progress made.
"This book outlines the profound bind that the CCP is in around their social contract with the Chinese people: we deliver growth in exchange for power, elite rents and quiescence on political freedoms"?
If that is their social contract, what is ours?
We have more more hungry children, drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, and imprisoned people in America than China.
And as to education, the OECD found that even children in poor Chinese provincial schools beat our kids in the PISA tests, while the average Chinese child has longer healthy life expectancy than the average American.
We should worry about invisible America.