Did you put CTL into this? EIA has China doing 124kbpd of CTL in 2021 (possibly higher now), and I think most of that is going into diesel/naphtha. I realise that might be even more diesel to account for...
I have felt this way with regard to iron ore. Property sales down 40-60%. FAI private sector proportionately weak. Yet steel production up. Commentators say "well, it is EV's, and solar / wind capacity installation, that's why steel demand remains strong". But then why is copper, lithium, scrap all so weak. Your oil analysis above seems to match well.
Thanks, this is a great piece.
Did you put CTL into this? EIA has China doing 124kbpd of CTL in 2021 (possibly higher now), and I think most of that is going into diesel/naphtha. I realise that might be even more diesel to account for...
I have felt this way with regard to iron ore. Property sales down 40-60%. FAI private sector proportionately weak. Yet steel production up. Commentators say "well, it is EV's, and solar / wind capacity installation, that's why steel demand remains strong". But then why is copper, lithium, scrap all so weak. Your oil analysis above seems to match well.
1/ What is the shelf life of diesel?
2/ Where are China's underground oil storage caverns located?
The US SPR caverns are fairly close to the coast:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(United_States)#/media/File:Strategic_Petroleum_Reserves,_United_States.jpg
3/ Is any spare capacity in the caverns substituted with water to prevent the caverns collapsing?
4/ S&P suggest Chinese refiners are still not having enough quota allocation to meet their
refining capacity:
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/091223-chinas-qualified-refineries-hungry-for-remainder-2023-crude-import-quotas
Preparations to minimize impact of sanctions and supply chain changes due to a conflict or war.
China stores 6 months of oil and 30 months of meat and cereals in its strategic reserves.